中国经济的两个拐点:刘易斯拐点与库兹涅茨拐点

China’s Two Turning Points: the Lewis Turning Point and the Kuznets Turning Point

在高速增长30年之后,中国经济的发展轨迹是否即将走向另一个轨道,或者说中国经济的发展道路是否迎来拐点,这些疑问正是国内外经济专家所关注和研究的焦点。本文基于发展经济学两个著名的拐点理论,以中国经济当前所面临的问题出发,探讨中国经济可能面临的刘易斯拐点和库兹涅茨拐点,以及它们对中国经济的内在涵义。

After 30 years of rapid growth,questions such as whether China’s economic development is about to go on a different track,or whether it is about to reach the turning points,are the focus and key research area for economists both at home and abroad.This paper,based on the two famous turning points-the Lewis turning point and the Kuznets turning point-in the economic literature,explores how close China is to these two turn points by analyzing the current problems of its economy.In addition,it also provides an explanation on what do they mean for China’s economy.