不一样的新周期:对全球再平衡的三重理解

A Completely New Cycle:Triple Meanings of Global Rebalancing

在上一轮经济周期中,发达国家(主要是美国)是消费性需求的主要来源,而新兴市场则承担了"世界工厂"的角色。经济前景呈现新兴市场好于欧洲、欧洲好于美国的格局。而在新一轮周期中,全球再平衡呈现出三个层次:发达与新兴市场的再平衡:新兴市场投资价值有所降低;发达国家内部的再平衡:美国的投资价值强于欧洲;新兴市场内部再平衡:东盟可能分流部分流向中国的资本。

In the recent past,the developed countries(mainly the United States) were the main source of consumer demand,while emerging markets assumed the role of the 'world's factory'.Emerging countries had a better economic outlook than Europe,which in turn had better prospects than the United States.However,in this new round of the economic cycle,global rebalancing is seen in three distinct areas.There has been a rebalancing of developed and emerging markets,and the investment values for emerging markets have been reduced.There has also been an internal rebalancing of the developed countries,which has led to investment values in the United States becoming greater than those in Europe.And there has been internal rebalancing within emerging markets,which ultimately could put ASEAN countries in a position to draw away some of the capital that had been fowing to China.