展望全球经济新棋局

The New Landscape of the World Economy

上半年国际市场虽然仍不平静,但危机风险整体趋缓的大势未发生改变。去年市场所普遍担心的欧元会否崩溃、美国能否躲过财政悬崖,以及日本是否将继欧洲之后爆发债务危机等问题,现在来看都在趋于缓和,下半年美国复苏趋势与节奏的进一步好转将为全球经济从此前的危机阶段向后危机阶段的转变奠定主基调。

Although global markets have encountered turbulence at times over the frst half of this year, the overall risk of a full-blown crisis has declined. Last year, there were widespread market concerns that the euro might collapse, the United States might be unable to avoid the fscal cliff and Japan might be headed for a European-style debt crisis. Now, it seems that these concerns have largely dissipated. In the second half of this year, with the US economy gradually recovering, the global economy is expected to enter a post-crisis era.