如何看待经历抛售后的新兴市场债券?

What Role for Emerging Markets After the Sell-Off ?

尽管历史表明新兴市场债券的抛售最终会带来具有吸引力的买入机会,但重要的还是将投资决策与具有前瞻性的经济和市场前景紧紧联系起来。全球经济增长仍然脆弱,这意味着新兴市场债券收益率在目前的估值水平上具有基本价值。因为在增长不稳定的环境下,新兴市场债券收益率曲线反映的利率上升实际不太可能发生。此外,全球投资者正在将资金从发达国家向新兴债券市场转移,仍然有望对资产价格构成支撑。由于许多投资者的出发点是对新兴市场债券极低的敞口,市场走弱的时期提供了为实现长期战略性配置逐步建立头寸的机会,同时如果市场波动性持续存在,仍可保留进一步买入的实力。

While history suggests that the sell-off in emerging market bonds could ultimately offer attractive buying opportunities,it is important to anchor investment decisions frmly within a forward-looking economic and market outlook.Continuing vulnerabilities in global growth suggest there is fundamental value in EM bond yields at present valuations,as interest rate hikes priced into EM yield curves are unlikely to materialize in an environment of tentative growth.In addition,ongoing reallocations by global investors from developed countries into emerging markets bonds remain a prospective source of support for asset prices.Because the starting point for many investors is very low exposure to EM bonds,periods of market weakness provide an opportunity to build incrementally toward long-termstrategicallocations,whileretainingdrypowderforadditionalpurchasesshouldmarketvolatilitypersist.