人民币国际化之路:使命召唤还是刀锋之舞

The Road to RMB Internationalization

人民币国际化,以及有关开放资本账户的争论再度成为学界讨论的焦点,目前还没有形成公认的定论。从政策制定的角度出发,理清现阶段经济中的主要矛盾的主要方面非常重要。本文认为争论的焦点并不应放在是否人民币国际化,而应该重点关注方法、进度、次序、配套条件、可控性和后备方案等技术细节,并推动有关的改革试点。

The debate over renminbi internationalization and capital account liberalization has once again become a focus of academic discussion, but there is no generally accepted formula on the way to proceed. From the policy-setting perspective, it is very important to clearly identify major contradictions in the economy at this stage. This paper argues that the focus of debate should no longer be whether or not we should internationalize the renminbi. Instead we should concentrate on the technical details of the policy such as the appropriate methodology, the expectations for progress, the sequencing of policy measures, related essential requirements, the ability to control events and contingency planning. In this manner, we can push ahead with the reforms.