可控风险的渐进改革——地方债务风险和化解路径

Risks from Local Government Debt and How to Reduce Them

2013年地方债务风险并未明显恶化,但仍然成为市场关注焦点。地方债务缺乏透明度和市场化约束,可测性、真实性难以落实。本文主张自上而下的研究,从地方政府的资产负债表、投资增长、地方财政和土地收入、房地产市场景气和人口流动等方面分析了目前的地方债务风险,并提出化解路径。

In 2013, local government debt has not significantly deteriorated but the topic is still a market focus. As local government debt lacks transparency and market constraints, the extent of the problem is diffcult to assess and there are concerns over the accuracy of any conclusions. In this article, the author advocates a top-down research approach to analyzing the current level of risk from local government debt. This includes several different aspects, including local government balance sheets, investment growth, local public fnances and income from land sales, the health of the local real estate market and population mobility. Based on this analysis, the author also makes recommendations on reducing risks from this debt.