机遇与风险并存——2014年中国经济冷暖评估

A Year with Both Opportunities and Risks – Assessing China's Economy of 2014

中国经济在3季度的表现优异,全年增速目标得以基本实现。但经济反弹的持续性受到了质疑,有人认为中国经济在4季度和明年的增速将回落并存在再度失速的风险。本文从出口、投资和消费三大需求出发,全面分析2014年的中国经济面临的机遇和挑战,并展望明年中国经济走势。

The performance of 3Q is good enough for China's economic growth to achieve the annual target. But the strength of the rally was questioned, as someone believe that the current rally will diminish from 4Q. This article tends to use aggregate demand framework(investment, consumption and net export) to analysis the risks and opportunities that China may face next year. Finally, we may give our forecast of the economic growth rate.