中国廉价劳动力时代的终结

The End of Cheap Labor

依据本文作者估计,中国适龄人口近年内将达到历史峰值,然后开始迅速减少。中国适龄劳动人口萎缩已成定局,这意味着廉价充裕的劳动力将成为历史,刘易斯拐点将到来,从而将对中国乃至世界产生重大影响。本文估算了中国劳动力、剩余劳动力的变化,分析了影响刘易斯拐点到来的一系列因素,强调人口结构将起主导作用。

In this article, the authors predict that within a few years, the working-age population in China will reach an historical peak and then begin a sharp decline. The coming change in China's labor picture is inescapable. When this occurs, the vast pool of low-cost workers will disappear and the economy will reach the Lewis Turning Point, with implications that could be far reaching for China and the global economy. This paper examines the changes in the workforce and the levels of surplus labor, while analyzing factors that could affect the Lewis Turning Point. It also emphasizes the dominant role of demographics in the country's imminent transition to a labor-short economy.