经济周期视角下不同品种债券的表现

A Look at the Performance of Different Bonds in the Economic Cycle

不同经济周期中,在增长和通胀两个基本面因素的影响下,债券市场表现不尽相同,而基本面因素对不同品种债券的主导作用是否存在异同同样值得探讨。本文从理论推演和数据求证两个角度探讨不同经济周期中不同品种债券的表现,发现在绝大多数时期内,国债收益率和信用利差的变化的确存在经济周期轮动的影响。

The bond market's performance responds to economic growth and inflation. Whether the fundamentals affect different bonds in the same way is a question worth exploring. In this paper, we discuss the performance of different bonds at various stages of the economic cycle, examining them from a theoretical standpoint as well as from available data. We conclude that in most cases changes in bond yields and credit spreads that are indeed influenced by the economic cycle.