2014年房地产市场与中国经济

China's Housing Market and the Economy in 2014

房地产市场前景一直是中国经济热议的问题。本文认为2014年中国房地产市场确实出现新变化,国内城市房地产市场分化的态势十分明显。但就此判断房市将崩盘言之过重。房价一定程度的回调,有助于改变中国房价只涨不跌的神话,引导预期回归理性。而鉴于房地产崩盘对中国经济和金融稳定有决定性的负面作用,中国房地产市场的发展将左右中国宏观经济走势。

The outlook for the housing market and how that market could affect the economy overall has been a topic of much debate. This article assesses the divergent trends in the market in 2014, examining how large and small markets have very different prospects. A market crash does not seem likely though a certain degree of price declines would be helpful in dispelling the myth of ever-increasing home prices in China. That in turn would help guide market expectations in a more rational direction. A housing market crash, however, would seriously damage the economy and financial stability. Market developments will have a major influence on China's macro-economic performance.