流动性问题再反思

A Further Look at Liquidity Issues

本文预计2014年中国流动性形势将总体偏紧,这是由于外汇占款很难超过2013年、IPO开闸可能导致更多资金流入股市等因素的影响。面对这种流动性形势,本文建议货币政策应保持真正意义上的中性,避免偏紧;加强市场调节的前瞻性、及时性和针对性,更加注重货币政策的灵活性,尽快优化存贷比管理机制等。

This paper predicts that China will have a tight liquidity environment in 2014, mainly due to lower levels of foreign exchange inflows compared with 2013 and the shift of more capital into the stock market as regulators allow the resumption of long-halted IPOs. In view of this liquidity environment, this paper suggests monetary policy should be neutral and avoid tightening while being more forward-looking and targetoriented. This paper also recommends a more flexible monetary policy and a more efficient use of the loan to deposit ratio as a regulatory tool.