金融危机与主权债务危机:那些未曾遗忘和不该遗忘的历史教训

Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten

发达经济体方才经历了一次为期数年、无比惨烈的经济危机,但决策圈从中得出的结论却是:高收入国家与新兴经济体的情况完全不同,应对危机的策略绝不能一样。然而,经历史查证,这种说法是不成立的,因为新兴经济体所倚仗的那套标准策略,各发达经济体在自己出现严重债务问题的时候,多多少少都用过。

Even after one of the most severe multi-year crises on record in the advanced economies, the received wisdom in policy circles clings to the notion that high-income countries are completely different from their emerging market counterparts. The claim is that advanced countries do not need to resort to the standard toolkit of emerging markets. As we document, this claim is at odds with the historical track record of most advanced economies, where debt restructuring or conversions, financial repression, and a tolerance for higher inflation, or a combination of these were an integral part of the resolution of significant past debt overhangs.