中国股票市场走向分析——基于A股估值中枢水平的探究

The Trend Analysis of China's Stock Market-Based on a Stock Value Evaluation Pivot Level

本文通过分析中国股市近年来走势变动的因素,认为中国股市是有效的市场;并进一步以实体经济投资回报率、房地产市场投资回报率和债券市场投资回报率为基础,计算股市估值中枢,认为股市有望向其合理估值中枢水平回归。

This article assesses recent trends in China's stock market and concludes that the market is operating efficiently. The author assesses returns on investments in the real economy as well as real estate and bonds, and uses this comparison to predict a return to more reasonable levels for domestic stock prices.