防范系统性风险视角下的中期利率和汇率展望

Preventing Systemic Risk Amid Trends for Renminbi Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate

国内外经济形势和政策的分化,使得我国中期的利率和汇率政策面对两难抉择。国内经济系统性风险的主要引爆点在于资产价格大幅下行和居民等部门资产大规模、持续的"去人民币化",前者更要紧。从防范系统性爆发风险的角度看,可能需要政策当局将相对宽松的资金面和适当下行的利率水平作为优先目标,并增强对可能的人民币汇率有限贬值的容忍度,用政策腾挪的空间换取用改革化解存量问题的时间。

The divergence of domestic and global policy trends have created a dilemma for policy makers as they try to reconcile China's medium term interest rates with the exchange rate. There are systemic risks in the domestic economy and they mainly lie in two areas: one is a possible sharp decrease in asset prices and the other is a potential flight from renminbi assets. The first is the more pressing concern. To prevent systemic risk, policy makers need to give priority to easier liquidity with a moderate reduction in interest rates. They also need to be more tolerant of a possible depreciation of the renminbi as they try to gain time for economic reform.