经济新常态下的债市分析框架重构

The Reconstruction of Bond Market Analysis Framework under the New Normal Economy

过去两年,用一些传统框架、惯有思维看待债券市场的节奏或变动,似乎总存在一种力不从心的感觉,分析结论与市场实际运行结果总存在一些偏差。这种偏差可能根源于新常态经济与传统经济的某种根本差异,因此在新常态之下,传统的债券分析框架可能需要作一些定义上的修正。

For the past two years, using traditional framework with conventional wisdom to analyze bond market changes seems not that appropriated. The analysis results always have some bias. This bias might result from the essential differences between the New Normal Economy and Traditional Economy. So under the New Normal, the traditional bond analysis framework should be adjusted.