“一带一路”:资本带动商品,重构中国产能输出新格局

Constructing a New Industrial Landscape in China Through the “One Belt, One Road” Strategy

如果说京津冀、珠三角、长三角是区域协同发展的点,长江经济带是重要的线,则"一带一路"是贯穿了我国由东向西、由南向北的面。在制造业产业结构趋同现象严重、传统产业优势区域的强强竞争压力大的产业区位短板下,"一带一路"战略将成为未来国家经济协同发展、产能输出、产业转移与升级的最重要支撑。这是因为,从国际收支平衡表视角看,"一带一路"将带来由单纯以商品输出为主导资本带动商品输出的转变,开启继80年代基本平衡、90年代资本账户盈余、00年代经常/资本账户双盈余后的再平衡时代。

China's traditional manufacturing sector is facing intense competitive pressure but the 'One Belt, One Road' strategy can provide crucial support for development of the national economy bye exporting excess capacity and contributing to industrial transfers and upgrades. The strategic program can also help attain development synergy across much of the country by taking advantage of regional joint development plans covering the Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei region, the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta. This would result in a swathe of more balanced development stretching across much of the country. The 'One Belt, One Road' strategy will also result in a shift from simple commodity production to capital-driven output, contributing to a rebalancing of our international payments position after the current account and capital account surpluses seen since 2000.