中国企业部门究竟能承担多少债务?

Assessing China's Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities

本文利用中国上市公司相关数据,评估了中国企业部门的债务风险,发现其平均杠杆率不高,但高杠杆企业的肥尾现象显著,主要集中在房地产、建筑业和国有企业上。房地产和建筑企业往往会面临更低的借贷成本,同时在高杠杆的情况下能抵御适度的利率波动;而企业部门则易受房地产和建筑业显著放缓的影响。

This article makes use of data from listed companies to assess the debt risks of China's corporate sector. It concludes that the average leverage ratio is not particularly high but there is an obvious 'fat tail' distribution. The elevated levels are mainly concentrated in real estate, construction and state-owned companies. Real estate and construction companies normally enjoy lower borrowing costs and can absorb a certain degree of interest rate increases even with their high levels of leverage. However, the corporate sector overall is easily affected by slower growth in the real estate and construction sectors.