人民币国际化与产业转型之两难

RMB Internationalization and Industrial Transformation

在经济超高速增长、对外贸易规模急剧扩张、巨额外汇储备、人民币缓慢升值和相对稳定的政治经济环境的共同作用下,人民币国际化取得了不俗成绩。在人民币国际化过程中,资本与金融账户全面开放已被提上日程,这将导致人民币汇率更富弹性。为了配合人民币国际化和"一带一路"建设,更富弹性的汇率形成机制在现实中导致人民币单向升值的概率增大,这将可能放缓我国产业转型的进程。

China has made significant progress in promoting internationalization of the renminbi, and this has been aided by rapid growth in the nation's economy, a big expansion in foreign trade, steady accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, a gradual appreciation of the currency and a relatively stable political and economic environment. Policy makers have put a full opening of the capital and financial account on the agenda, and ultimately this will result in greater flexibility in the renminbi exchange rate. But a more flexible exchange rate, coupled with increasing renminbi internationalization and progress in rolling out the 'One Belt, One Road' initiative, could actually increase the prospects of a return to a one-way appreciation of the currency. That could slow the process of China's industrial transformation.