人民币汇率制度改革与未来走势

Renminbi Exchange Rate System Reform and its Longterm Trends

人民币连续两天快速下跌,引起各方关注。关于人民币的合理估值,一直以来都存有分歧,美国度量一国货币的合理估值水平更多依照贸易余额理论,而我们在度量的时候更多会考虑经济结构的因素。也正是由于这方面的原因,人民币的走势也就不仅仅与我国的经济走势、出口走势相关,而是经济增长、出口走势、贸易顺差、外汇占款变化、大国博弈等因素综合考量的结果。

The abrupt depreciation of renminbi over two consecutive days in August attracted attention around the world. Debate persists over what is a reasonable valuation for renminbi. The U.S. makes use of the trade balance theory to assess a currency's reasonable level, while China considers economic structure. The renminbi's exchange rate is not completely a matter of economic fundamentals but rather it tends to reflect economic growth, export trends, the nation's trade surplus, changes in foreign exchange flows and gamesmanship between China and the United States.