美联储加息之惑

Interest Rate Increases of the US Federal Reserve: the Dilemma

本文回顾历次美联储加息的背景、特点和共性及其影响,美联储退出量化宽松后,其加息时点成为市场关注焦点。对比现在及以前的美联储加息的经济环境,预计美国或会采用较温和的方式加息,且加息会对新兴市场造成一定的压力,对其货币和金融体系造成一定冲击。

This paper reviews the backgrounds, characteristics, common features and influences of previous interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve. After the Fed announced an end to the quantitative easing stimulus program, the timing of rate increases has been receiving market attention. With a different economic background compared to previous rate increases, the US Federal Reserve might undertake a milder approach. Some pressure to the monetary and financial systems of emerging markets may be expected.