非典型经济周期

The Atypical Economic Cycle

金融周期考虑了房地产和信用两个方面,系统地反映了资产和负债端的变化。两者相互促进,导致经济的顺周期性,直至拐点发生。展望未来,有几个可能的因素诱发政策在边际上紧缩,包括担心泡沫过度膨胀和通胀风险,在结构日益失衡、信用风险加大、债务调整压力大的背景下,政策的边际紧缩将对经济产生较大的负面冲击。

Financial cycle takes into consideration of the two aspects--real estate and credit, systemically reflecting the changes in both assets and liabilities. The two aspects mutually reinforce each other, creating the economic pro-cyclicality until the turning point. Looking into the future, there are several possible factors that may cause marginal policy contraction, such as concerns about excessive bubble expansion and the risk of inflation. With the background of structural imbalance, debt adjustment pressure and increasing credit risk, the marginal tightening of policy will have a significant negative impact on the economy.