探寻经济增长的最优杠杆率

Determining the Optimal Amount of Leverage for Economic Growth

本文认为发达国家普遍较高的杠杆率与经济增长存在着正向联系,且其有利的金融环境也提高了债务最优峰值。而我国当前面临着人口老龄化与经济结构转型的复杂局面,这使得债务规模的过度扩张不再具有持续性。为此,应大力发展多层次资本市场,着力于僵尸企业去杠杆,调整杠杆结构,加快经济体制改革等结构性的策略应对债务问题。

The author of this article maintains that there is a positive correlation between the relatively high debt ratios of developed economies and their economic growth.A developed financial system allows higher debt levels without broader negative consequences.China's expansion of domestic debt is unsustainable,however,due the nation's aging population and the need for economic restructuring to address overcapacity in a number of traditional industries such as steel and cement.China needs to remain committed to developing a multi-tiered capital market while it seeks to write off or restructure debts of so-called 'zombie companies' that are effectively bankrupt.The hope for driving economic growth in the future comes from emerging industries,and a rebalancing of debt is needed to support these new and promising sectors.