人民币汇率的定价机制与路径演绎

The Pricing Mechanism of the Renminbi Exchange Rate

本文阐述了人民币中间价形成机制,剖析在不同情境下汇率走势的可能路径与相应的政策选择。同时,本文从出口、中美经济周期、和中美利差三个方面考察,认为人民币汇率在中长期并不存在持续贬值的基础。

This article assesses the renminbi central parity mechanism and examines the possible movements of the currency as well as the policy choices under a different exchange rate environment. The article also looks at the renminbi's exchange rate from the perspective of exports, the economic cycles in the US and China and the interest rate spreads between the two countries. It concludes that there is no basis for the Chinese currency to continue depreciating in the medium to longer term.