超级债务周期与经济增长

The Debt Super Cycle and Economic Growth

超级债务周期除受到人口、技术影响外,还更直接受到金融创新导致的信用体系发展这一制度因素的影响。世界信用体系,大致经历如下转变:从商业信用发展出银行信用与政府信用;从金属货币到法定货币;从银行体系发展到影子银行体系。这导致了信用与债务的扩张。根据债务与经济增长的关系,大致可以将超级债务周期划分为:高增长期、缓和期、泡沫期与衰退期。本文还对美国与日本战后的超级债务周期进行了分析。

The debt super cycle is linked to population growth and technological development as well as financial innovation and the evolution of a credit system. If we examine the development of the global credit system, we can observe the following general pattern: the use of coins gives way to reliance on paper currency, a system of commercial credit shifts to a system of bank and government credit, and finally, the banking system evolves into one that includes shadow banking. Ultimately, this development path leads to credit expansion and debt accumulation. As credit and economic growth are interrelated, the examination of this relationship allows us to roughly divide the debt super cycle into four distinct phases: rapid growth, moderating growth, financial bubbles and recession. This paper analyzes these phases by examining the post-war debt super cycles in the US and Japan.