通缩现象和传统宏观经济理论困境

Study on Deflation and Some Enquiries into the Traditional Macroeconomic Theories

本文针对当前全球通缩现象进行分析,认为西方各大央行以宽松货币政策应对增长型通缩是误入歧途,财政政策可能会更有效。基于通缩现象对传统宏观理论检视,认为央行需要更全面地考虑资产市场的影响,尤其是预期因素的影响,由此而应对利率杠杆在传导中的非对称性,并理解财政政策、货币政策在治理通胀和通缩的不同效果。

This paper focuses on the analysis of the current global deflation phenomenon, and considers that central banks using loose monetary policy to cope with the growth type deflation is misguided. Fiscal policy may be more effective. By reviewing the traditional macro theory, this paper suggests the central banks should fully consider the impact of asset markets, especially the expectation factor, therefore they can deal with the asymmetric conduction effect by the interest rate and understand the different effects of monetary policy and fiscal policy in controlling inflation and deflation.