增长的底线

Population Aging and Labor Supply and Demand in China

本文分析了当前中国劳动力供给和需求的变动因素,认为由于人口老龄化加速等因素影响,近年来我国劳动年龄人口的绝对数量持续减少,城镇劳动力供给增速快速收缩,同时经济增速下行使得劳动力需求也在放缓。由于劳动力供给收缩快于劳动力需求下滑,因此前期整体失业率不升反降,但局部与结构性失业问题仍难以避免。

This paper analyzes the current fluctuations in labor supply and demand in China.The economy continues to expand but due to factors such as the acceleration of population aging,the absolute size of the working-age population has decreased in recent years and the growth of the urban labor supply has slowed considerably.Slower economic growth has moderated demand for labor.As the labor supply contraction has been faster than the decline in labor demand,the overall unemployment rate has fallen.However,the problem of structural unemployment is still proving difficult to resolve.