减税降费知多少?——2019年积极财政政策全面影响的定量评估

A Closer Look at Tax and Fee Cuts——Quantitative Assessment of a Proactive Fiscal Policy in 2019

本文基于不同的情景假设,对2019年减税降费政策的全面影响进行了尽可能细致的量化分析和评估,认为2019年的积极财政政策超出市场预期,对GDP的新增拉动作用(相比2018年)大概0.72个百分点,超出市场预期0.56个百分点。增值税的变化整体略微低于预期,而最大的超预期体现在社保降费部分,主要是社保征缴改革暂缓。不但企业在整体上明显受益,更为重要的是民营企业和低收入群体在短期内不用担心社保征缴改革的负面影响。

This paper looks at different possible scenarios to make a detailed quantitative analysis of the impact of the government’s reductions in taxes and fees in 2019.The study concludes that the combined result of these fiscal policy measures will exceed market expectations and the added pull effect on GDP(compared with 2018)will be about 0.72 percentage point,surpassing market expectations by 0.56 percentage point.The actual effect of the reduction in the value-added tax was determined to be slightly less than expected while the area where the impact exceeded expectations the most was in social welfare payments,mainly due to the suspension of reforms to the collection of social welfare contributions.Companies in general would benefit from this policy shift,and critically,that would include private enterprises.Low-income groups would also benefit as they would no longer need to worry about the near-term negative effects of social welfare reform.