经济缘何变平？

What is Behind the Sluggish Economy?

无论从历史纵向还是国际横向来看,近年来我国经济运行的一个突出特征是波动性显著下降。本文分析了影响经济运行轨迹的'无形之手'与'有形之手'。展望未来,依然是外部冲击和金融风险的多事之秋,但这未必预示宏观经济运行的轨迹发生结构性的断点变化。与波动性较小的宏观总量相比,未来经济结构上的变迁或许更值得期待。

A prominent feature of China’s economy in recent years has been a significant decline in volatility.This paper analyzes the'invisible hand'and the'visible hand'affecting the nation’s economic trajectory.Looking ahead,2019 is likely to be a year of external shocks and new financial risks,but this does not necessarily indicate a drastic change in macroeconomic conditions.In the future,structural changes in the economy may be the features that deserve the greatest attention.