摘要
从2019年5月中旬开始,美债收益率曲线出现明显倒挂现象。本文首先分析了美债收益率曲线倒挂直接触发因素在于期限溢价,但本次倒挂还存在与之前的不同逻辑即QE和缩表的影响;其次据此预测倒挂会持续多久,以及美联储的货币政策走向;最后分析倒挂现象对美国经济前景的影响。
Since mid-May there has been an inverted yield curve in the US bond market.This paper examines bond term premiums and concludes that quantitative easing and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet reduction are contributors to this market phenomenon.Additionally,this paper makes predictions on the duration of the yield curve inversion and the future direction of the Fed’s monetary policy.It also assesses the impact on the US economy.
出处
《金融市场研究》
2019年第8期73-83,共11页
Financial Market Research
