经济波动与总量控制

ECONOMIC FLUCTUATION AND GENERAL VOLUME CONTROL

经济波动同经济总量失衡有着密切的关系;如何科学地对社会总供求进行定性和定量的分析,直接决定着人们对经济形势的认识。正基于此,本文在对1981—1990年中国宏观经济运行进行实证与理论的分析基础之上,试图找出正确认识社会总供求的方法,和中国经济总量变化与经济波动之间的内在联系。进而作者指出:应当真正把提高经济效益作为宏观经济管理的主要目标;为此宏观调控的变量应由计划调控四大平衡为主转为调控社会总供求为主;调控社会总供求时应以总需求作为调控的总量指标;而需求管理的关键又在于管住货币。

There is a close relationship between the economic fluctuation and general volume unbalance. To estimate the economic situation correctly, we should first analyse scientifically the social general supply and demand situation. On the basis of analyzing the practice and theories of macro-economic operation from 1981 to 1990, the author tries to find out an correct approach to knowing about the social general supply and demand and the inner ties between economic fluctuation and general supply and demand volume. The author points out that it should be set as the main goal to improve economic efficiency in macro-economic management. When we adjust the general volume of supply and demand, we must take the general demand volume as the index. The key to adjusting the general supply and demand is to control currency volume.