基于灰色模型的地铁运营期轨行区沉降预测研究

Prediction Analysis for the Settlement of Metro Rail Line Interval Based on the Grey Model During Traffic Operation

针对运营期地铁结构内的轨行区部分沉降的成因进行了阐述,以南京地铁二号线部分区间沉降监测为例,介绍了基本监测方法和监测点布置情况。在论述GM(1,1)灰色模型生成原理的基础上,研究了模型精度及模型拟合程度评定方法,提出了采用GM(1,1)灰色模型对轨行区沉降进行预测研究,分析了实测结果与预测结果的残差,比较了不同模型的预测效果。计算实例表明,该模型预测精度高,所需数据少,简单实用,在中短期预测方面效果良好;并创新开发了预报的手机和网页终端,提出了短信报警预警值的分类等级。预测模型和预警软件开发方法值得在地铁轨行区沉降预测中推广。

In view of the causes of settlement of the metro rail line area in operation period,the interval of settlement monitoring as part of Nanjing subway line 2as an example,it introduces the basic monitoring method and the arrangement of monitoring points.Based on the discussion of the principle of GM(1,1)grey model generation,the method of evaluating the accuracy of the model and the fitting degree of the model is studied,the GM(1,1)model is proposed to rail lines were used to predict the area subsidence,the residual error of the measured results and the prediction results is analisised,the prediction results of different model is compared.The calculation example shows that the model prediction accuracy is high,less the required data,simple and practical,in terms of short-term forecast effect is good,and developing mobile phone message forecasting and web terminal system is puts forward the classification level of alarm warning value.Prediction model and early warning software development method is worth popularizing in railway line area subsidence prediction.