土地利用变化驱动力及趋势分析——以琼海市为例

Analysis of the Driving Force and Trend for Land Use Change——For Qionghai as an Example

海岸带土地利用变化频繁,而这些变化受自然及社会经济发展等因素制约。以琼海市为研究区,分别对2006、2010、2014年的Landsat影像采取支持向量机的分类方法提取土地利用信息,主成分分析法进行土地利用变化驱动力分析,马尔可夫模型预测土地利用趋势。结果表明:土地利用变化主要驱动力为人口增长、经济发展和产业结构调整,预测出2018和2020年的用地数量和结构。研究成果能为土地利用布局调整和优化等提供基础数据。

The change of land utilization which influenced by some factors such as natural,social and economic development in coastal zone is frequently.The data source in this research was land utilization data in 2006,2010 and 2014in Qionghai city.Extracted the land utilization information by the Support Vector Machine(SVM),researched the driving force of land use change by principal component analysis and predicted the trend of land use by Markov model.The results show that the main driving forces of land use change are population growth,economic development and industrial structure adjustment.The quantity and structure of land use in 2018 and 2020is predicted.The research results can provide the basic data for layout adjustment and optimization of land use.