区间值模糊环境下的不确定网络舆情突发事件应急决策方案优选方法

Optimization Selection Method for Uncertain Internet Public Opinion Emergency Decision Plans under Interval-valued Fuzzy Environment

网络舆情突发事件由于前兆信息不充分,具有明显的不确定性特征和社会危害性,各相关应急管理部门往往会根据自身利益的不同预先制定多个备选应急决策方案来处置舆情危机。为辅助决策者最终从中选择出一个效果最佳的应急方案,首先提取一些可有效衡量不确定网络舆情突发事件应急方案效果的重要评估指标,再基于指标的区间模糊信息熵测度来获取其合理权重,进而通过对所有应急指标评估值的加权集结运算得到各备选决策方案的综合效果区间评估值,最后根据区间值两两比较的可能优先度大小,给已有的各应急决策方案优先排序,可极大地提高网络舆情突发事件应急处置效率。

Due to the insufficient information,significant uncertainty characteristics and social harm in the internet public opinion emergency,the relevant emergency management departments depending on self-interest tend to make many alternative emergency plans for coping with public opinion crisis.In order to assist the top decision-maker ultimately choose the optimal emergency plan,in this paper we first extracted some important evaluation indicators which can effectively measure the effect of uncertain internet public opinion emergency plans,and assigned the reasonable weights for the selected indicators based on interval fuzzy entropy measure.Then we got the combined interval value effect of each alternative emergency decision plan by the weighted aggregation of all the assessed index value of emergency plan.Finally,by pair-wise comparisons of all the combined interval values,we could get their possible priority degree and prioritized all the alternative emergency decision plans,greatly improving the decision efficiency of internet public opinion emergency.