非常规天然气产业投资的综合评价与路径选择

Comprehensive Evaluation and Path Orientation of Investment in Unconventional Natural Gas Industry

分别从资源潜力、技术经济、产业发展和生态环境四个方面对非常规天然气产业投资进行了定量分析,既考虑了资源本身的特征,又考虑了技术水平、成本收益,还考虑了非常规天然气生产的外部性问题。将TOPSIS模型与灰色关联度评价相结合,构建了非常规天然气产业投资的综合评价模型,对非常规天然气产业投资路径进行了详细分析。结果表明,综合考虑政府和企业的不同角度,非常规天然气产业投资的优先顺序依次为致密气、煤层气、页岩气和可燃冰。最后,对我国非常规天然气产业发展的路径选择提出了政策建议。

This paper quantitatively analyzes four aspects of resource potential,technology economy,industrial development and ecological environment,considers not only the characteristics of resources themselves,but also the technical level,cost and benefit,as well as the external environment of unconventional natural gas production.It uses the combination of TOPSIS model with grey correlation evaluation to construct a comprehensive evaluation model of unconventional natural gas industry investment,and makes a detailed analysis of the investment path of unconventional natural gas industry.The results show as follows:the investment priorities of unconventional natural gas industry are compact gas,coal-bed gas,shale gas and combustible ice,taking into account the different perspectives of government and enterprises.Finally,it puts forward some policy suggestions for the development of unconventional natural gas industry in China.