劳动力年龄结构对中国经济发展的影响

Impact of Age Structure of Labor Force on Economic Development in China

基于中国人口结构新特征,分析了劳动力年龄结构对中国经济发展的影响,在索罗经济增长模型的基础上扩展得到人口变量与经济变量的关系。通过建立面板结构向量自回归模型(PSVAR)发现,中国经济发展的波动与劳动力年龄结构的波动密切相关。其中,30～45岁劳动力占比的波动冲击对经济波动有正向影响,46～64岁劳动力占比的波动冲击对经济波动有负向影响,而15～29岁劳动力占比的波动冲击随着第三产业的发展对经济波动产生正向影响。使用Leslie模型方法对未来人口年龄结构进行预测。结果发现,若生育率逐渐升高,则未来青壮年劳动力的比例波动趋缓会对缓解经济波动起到一定的积极作用。最后,提出了完善生育政策,优化劳动力年龄结构的政策建议。

Based on the new characteristics of population structure in China,this paper analyzes the impact of age structure of labor force on China’s economic development,and gets the relationship between population and economic variables by expanding the Solow economics growth model.It finds that the fluctuation of China’s economic development is closely related to the fluctuation of the age structure in the labor force through the establishment of panel structure vector autoregressive model(PSVAR).In details,the fluctuation shock of 30~45 years old prime working-age population has a positive effect on economic fluctuation;the fluctuation shock of the 46~64 years old near-retire population has a negative effect on economic fluctuation,and the fluctuation shock of the 15~29 years old young population has a positive effect on economic fluctuation with the development of the tertiary industry.Then,it uses Leslie model to forecast the future population age structure.The results show as follows:if the fertility rate increases gradually,the future proportion of the young and middle-aged labor force will slow down,which will play apositive role in alleviating economic fluctuations.Finally,it puts forward some policy suggestions on perfecting the birth policy and optimizing the age structure of labor force.