新旧常态下不同来源技术进步对中国产业碳强度的影响

Influence of Technological Progress from Different Sources on China's Industrial Carbon Intensity under New and Old Normal Periods

基于文献综述确定了六种技术进步来源,探寻了不同来源技术进步对中国产业碳强度的影响机制。选择超越对数生产函数,构建了技术进步对产业碳强度影响的测度模型。从中国整体产业及产业部门两个层面,运用模型测度了新旧常态下不同来源技术进步对中国产业碳强度的影响。研究发现:R&D、FDI水平溢出和FDI前向溢出三种来源的技术进步可降低整体产业碳强度,FDI后向溢出、进口溢出和出口溢出则会增加整体产业碳强度;相较旧常态时期,新常态时期六种来源的技术进步对于整体产业碳强度影响均展示了正面调整;新旧常态时期,R&D和FDI水平溢出降低了所有产业部门的碳强度,进口溢出和出口溢出则会提升所有产业的碳强度,FDI前向溢出和后向溢出影响不一;除FDI前向溢出和出口溢出外,其余来源技术进步对高碳强度产业部门碳强度的正面影响均差于所有产业均值。在此基础上,针对更好地利用不同来源技术进步降低中国产业碳强度提出了建议。

Based on the literature review,this paper identifies six sources of technological progress,and explores the impact of technological progress on industrial carbon intensity of China.Then it selects the transcendental logarithmic production function to construct the model to measure the impact of technological progress on industrial carbon intensity.From two aspects of whole industry and industrial sectors,it uses this model to measure the impact of the technological progress from different sources on China’s industrial carbon intensity under old and new normality periods.It finds that:R&D,FDI level spillovers and FDI forward spillovers can reduce the overall industrial carbon intensity,FDI backward spillovers,import spillovers and export spillovers can increase the overall industrial carbon intensity;compared with the old normal period,the technological progress of the six sources in the new normal period shows positive adjustment to the overall industrial carbon intensity;in the new and old normal period,R&D and FDI level spillovers can reduce the carbon intensity of all industrial sectors,import spillovers and export spillovers will increase the carbon intensity of all industries,and FDI forward and backward spillovers have different effects;in addition to FDI spillover and export spillover,the positive impact of technological progress on carbon intensity in all sectors of high carbon intensity are worse than the average of all industries sectors.At last,it puts forward suggestions to make better use of technological advances from different sources to reduce China’s industrial carbon intensity.