面向自相关过程的改进ARMAST控制图与Grubbs调和规则的集成

Integration of modified ARMAST chart and Grubbs'harmonic rule for auto-correlated processes

为解决多品种小批量生产方式存在过程输出自相关和机器设置的频繁调整通常导致过程均值偏离目标值两个问题。提出以改进的稳态自回归滑动平均控制图为监控技术、以基于稳态卡尔曼滤波器的Grubbs调和规则为调整技术的集成理论。其中,针对稳态自回归滑动平均控制图在高阶自回归滑动平均过程下难以求解稳态方差的问题,建立了通用的任意阶平稳自回归过程下稳态方差的求解方法,使其适用范围更广;针对稳态自回归滑动平均控制图的参数设计方法效率较低,提出了基于条件概率的参数设计方法,使其监控效率更好。当控制图预警后,采用Grubbs调和规则对生产过程进行调整。通过仿真实验和实例研究验证了改进的参数设计方法和集成方法的有效性。

To solve two problems of the auto-correlated phenomenon in the process output and the process mean was usually off-target due to the frequent adjustment of machine at the setup phase existed in multi-products and low volume production mode,a new integrated method with the modified steady-state Auto Regressive and Moving Average(ARMAST)chart as monitoring technology and Grubbs'harmonic rule based on steady-state Kalman filter as adjusting technology was proposed.Aiming at the problem that the steady-state variance of ARMAST chart was hard to solve under high-order ARMA model,the solving method on generally arbitrary order stationary AR model was established to expand the applicable scope of steady-state variance.For the low efficiency of ARMAST chart parameters'design method,the new method was designed based on conditional probability to monitor the efficiency better.After the early warning of charts',the production process should be adjusted according to Grubbs'harmonic rule.The simulation experiments and case studies were conducted to demonstrate the validity of these methods.