复杂产品MRO协同服务链建模与不确定性分析方法

Modeling and uncertainty analysis of collaborative MRO service chain of complex product

针对复杂产品维护、维修和大修(MRO)协同服务链中存在大量不确定性,其关系杂乱而不能进行有效的分析建模的问题,在分析复杂产品MRO协同服务链特点的基础上,建立了复杂产品MRO协同服务链结构模型;提出一套复杂产品MRO协同服务链不确定性建模与分析方法,从面向复杂产品MRO协同服务链结构基元和面向服务过程两个层面分析了不确定性因素的来源,定义了显性和隐性不确定性的概念,建立了层次性不确定性传播关系模型;考虑各类不确定性因素的不确定度波动范围和概率对不确定性因素敏感性的影响,提出一种两层次的复杂产品MRO协同服务链不确定性因素敏感性分析方法。案例验证表明,所提不确定性传递模型和敏感性分析方法能够支撑复杂产品MRO协同服务链不确定性的预防控制。

There are a lot of uncertainties in the collaborative Maintenance,Repair and Overhaul/Operations(MRO)service chain of complex product,and the relationships are disorganized and cannot be effectively analyzed and modeled.Based on analyzing the characteristics of complex product’s collaborative MRO service chain,the structural model of collaborative MRO service chain was built.Uncertainty modeling and analysis methods of complex product’s collaborative MRO service chain were proposed,the sources of uncertainty were analyzed in the view of structure units and service process view of the collaborative MRO service chain of complex product,the concept of dominant uncertainty and recessive uncertainty were defined,and an uncertainty transmission relationship model was constructed.By considering the influence of variation range and the corresponding probability functions of the uncertainty factors,an uncertainty sensitivity analysis method for collaborative MRO service chain of complex product was proposed.Results of the case study showed that the proposed method could support the uncertainty prevention control of complex MRO collaborative service chain.