赣东主汛期模式降水预报检验分析

Analysis of Precipitation Forecasting in Main Flood Season Mode in the East of Jiangxi

基于ECMWF模式形势场预报资料及JAPANFAX、GFS、EC-THIN、JMA、T639、NCEP等11家模式降水预报资料,从面雨量、极值降雨量2个方面对2015年江西省抚州市主汛期(6月上旬至7月上旬)区域性暴雨的降水预报结果进行了短期主观检验,对比分析了11种数值模式对江西省抚州市区域性暴雨系统预报的效果。结果表明:1)在面雨量预报方面,EC集合预报、T639模式预报、GFS预报在主汛期的降水预报准确率较好; 2)在极值降雨量的预报方面,EC-THIN、T639模式预报在主汛期的降水预报准确率更好; 3)得到本地化预报准确的模式,再对2016-2017年的强降水天气过程的面雨量和极值降水量进行了预报验证,找出这2个要素的预报思路及指标,为今后主汛期降水起到较好的参考指导意义。

Based on the ECMWF mode situation field forecast data and 11 models of precipitation forecast data such as JAPANFAX,GFS,EC-THIN,JMA,T639,NCEP,etc.from the aspects of surface rainfall and extreme rainfall,a short-term subjective test was carried out on the precipitation forecast results of regional heavy rains in the main flood season of Fuzhou city in Jiangxi province from early June to early July.The effects of 11 numerical models on the prediction of regional heavy rain system in Fuzhou City,Jiangxi province were compared and analyzed.The results show:1)that in terms of surface rainfall forecast,T639,GFS,and EC ensemble predictions have better accuracy in precipitation prediction during the main flood season.2)In terms of the forecast of extreme rainfall,the EC-THIN and T63 models predict better precipitation prediction accuracy during the main flood season.3)Obtain an accurate model of localized forecasting,and then verify the surface rainfall and extreme precipitation of the strong precipitation weather process from 2016 to 2017,and find out the forecasting ideas and indicators of these two elements.It will provide a good reference for the future precipitation in the main flood season.