地面防空群战时备件需求预测方法

Spare Parts Demand Forecast Method in Wartime for Surface Air Defense Group

针对地面防空群战时备件消耗和需求预测的复杂性与特殊性,提出一种备件需求预测方法。依据影响战时地面防空群备件消耗主要因素构建评价指标体系,采用置信度法确定指标权重,应用模糊综合评判法构建预测模型并进行评判。通过实例分析,该方法能够客观、精确地预测战时地面防空群的备件需求,可为决策者提供一种新思路。

Considering the complexity and particularity of spare parts consumption and demand forecast in wartime for surface air defense group,a spare parts demand forecast method is put forward in this paper. It firstly establishes evaluation index system according to the main factors which influencing wartime spare parts consumption of surface air defense group.Then,it determines the index weight with confidence rating method,and sets up a forecast model and evaluates it with fuzzy synthetic evaluation method. The analysis on an actual example shows that this method can forecast the spare parts demand of wartime surface air defense group objectively and accurately,and it can provide a new idea for decision makers.