江苏省2014年肺结核流行状况空间聚集性分析

Geographic information system-based tuberculosis spatial aggregation analysis of Jiangsu province in 2014

目的探索江苏省结核病分布规律和空间高发区域,为制定有效结核病防控政策和措施提供依据。方法收集江苏省2014年结核病登记资料,使用ArcGIS 10.2制作结核病空间分布图,采用空间自相关分析、热点分析、趋势面分析等方法,了解结核病全局自相关性和空间聚集情况。结果 2014年江苏省结核病登记率为41.36/10万。全局自相关分析显示,2014年全省肺结核患者发病存在空间聚集性(Moran's I=0.175,Z=3.006,P<0.01)。热点分析显示,2014年全省结核病登记率高聚集区域有宿豫区、邳州市、新沂市、东海县、沭阳县、涟水县、灌南县、响水县、高邮市、兴化市等10个县(市、区)。趋势面分析显示,2014年全省肺结核登记率总体分布自北向南呈下降趋势。结论江苏省结核病流行具有空间聚集性,存在热点区域,应根据分布特点采取相应控制措施。

Objective To analyze tuberculosis epidemic characteristics and hot prevalence spots in Jiangsu province;to provide scientific evidence for making TB prevention and control strategies.Methods Tuberculosis registration data in 2014 were collected to make digital spatial prevalence map using ArcGIS 10.2software.Spatial autocorrelation analysis,hot spot analysis and trend analysis were applied to understand global autocorrelation and spatial aggregation status of tuberculosis.Results The registration rate of TB in 2014 was 41.36/105 in Jiangsu province.Global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed significant tuberculosis epidemic spatial aggregation in 2014(Moran's I =0.175,Z=3.006,P<0.01).Hot spot analysis identified 10 hot spot regions(Suyu district,Pizhou city,Xinyi city,Donghai county,Shuyang county,Lianshui county,Guannan county,Xiangshui county,Gaoyou city,Xinghua city).Trend analysis showed tuberculosis registration rates declined from the north to the south part of Jiangsu province in 2014.Conclusion Tuberculosis prevalence was spatially aggregated in Jiangsu province with hot spot regions.Targeted strategies should be implemented according to tuberculosis spatial prevalence characteristics.