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稻水象甲种群增长规律初探 被引量:7

Preliminary Researches on the Population Increasing Regulation of Rice Water Weevil Lissorhoptrus oryzophilus Kuschel
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摘要 扣笼接虫观测稻水象甲不同接虫密度所产下代虫量。结果表明 ,稻水象甲种群增长具有明显密度依赖性 ,接虫密度X越大 ,代间增殖倍率 Y2 越低。 X-Y2 关系用 Y2 =1 /( 0 .836 + 0 .4 2 1 X)的双曲线拟合良好。以水稻移栽后稻田成虫密度 N为指标 ,越冬成虫存活率为 S0 ,防治后成虫残存率为 S1,则第 t和 t+ 1年种群密度关系可表述为 :Nt+ 1=S0 S1Nt/( 0 .0 836 + 0 .0 4 2 1 S0 S1Nt)。模型参数值稳定 ,拟合度好 ,模型描述的种群增长规律与稻水象甲侵入辽宁省以来种群增长的实际情况相吻合。用该模型预测辽宁省不同地区稻水象甲的发生趋势其准确率高 。 In China,rice water weevil (Lissorhoptrus oryzophilus) is a quarantine pest. which was first discovered in Dandong City,Liaoning Province in 1991.Then it was found in 5 cities of Liaoning Province in 1995.The wide occurrence and severe damage of it were spreading quickly in whole Liaoning Province.From 1995 to 1997,this study was carried out at Yiquan town,Donggang City,Liaoning Province where it occurred seriously. The cage used in this study has a steel skeleton screen covering (1m×1m×1.5m in size and 25 holes/inch 2) that can prevent the adult pest from going in and out freely.The output population densities of pest were measured from different artificial input population densities.A black-box model used to analyze increasing population growth regulation is established.After rice transplanting,the experiment was carried out in paddy field.There were 20 hills of rice in a cage.Different population of the adult pest (collected on maize,not oviposited) was put in every cage and 4 repeat tests of different input densities were made from July when the new adults emerged to early October before rice cut.The adults were picked out from every cage at 3 days' interval and the number of produced adults was counted.Using one-variable analysis method,the relationship between input population density X and output population density Y 1 as well as input population density X and increasing times of population Y 2 could be analyzed.Using mathematical method of insect population increasing calculation,the pest population-increasing model can be built to analyze the tendency of pest population.At last,the controlling program of pest is made.In 1997~2000,the forecasting accuracy of the model was checked by the data that were got from the study of the pest in Liaoning Province. The result of the experiment proved that in the increasing of pest population there was remarkably density dependence.It showed that the higher the input population densities X the lower the population increasing times y 2.A hyperbolic line equation gives a good fit to X-Y 2 relation.The Process of experiment in different years was the same and the model was similar.In the model of X-Y 2 relation,N was the population density of adult on early of June in paddy field,S 0 was the survival rate of overwinter adult,S 1 was the survival rate of adult after spraying pesticide,and the preproduction of the survival adult was not affected by chemical control.Then the adult density of this year N t and it of the next year N t+1 could by expressed by the following black-box model.N t+1=S 0S 1N t/(0.0836+0.0421S 0S 1N t) Using this model for analysis,the pest density increasing from 0.0001 to 1 adult/hill needed only 5 years.Ths values from the model were identical with the observation in the paddy field in Liaoning Province.It could be seen that the rapid increasing population of pest could cause heavy yield loss.As for the current population density of pest in Liaoning Province,in order to check the population density increasing,the efficiency of chemical control should be over 90%. Using the data of observation from different areas in Liaoning Province one could predict the insect population of second year or the next three years in different areas.As contracted with the results of real occurrence in the paddy field,the rate of forecast accuracy could reach 80%.This model was also suited to make control decision.In order to ensure the larva density of the next generation below the economic threshold,the erriciency of chemical control should reach more than 81%.As the current controlling measures were considered,the efficiency of control by agricultural method could only reach 60%.For this reason,enhancing chemical control measures could reduce the yield loss caused by the pest,and a long term IPM strategy with continuing chemical control as chief method must be upheld in Liaoning Province.
出处 《生态学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2002年第10期1704-1709,共6页 Acta Ecologica Sinica
基金 辽宁省重点研究资助项目 ( 94 2 0 1 0 31 ) "九.五"攻关资助项目 ( 96 2 1 4 0 0 2)
关键词 稻水象甲 种群增长规律 害虫发生趋势 预测 综合防治 Lissorhoptrus oryzophilus population increasing regulation forecast of the occurrence tendency of pest IPM
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