基于道路容量、建筑量、汽车保有量的拥堵指数敏感性分析

Congestion Index Sensitivity Analysis Based on Road Network Capacity, Building Volume and Car Ownership

为研究道路容量、建筑量及汽车保有量对交通拥堵的敏感程度,提出以拥堵指数作为评价敏感程度的指标。以青岛市东岸城区为例,根据行政区划及功能布局将东岸城区划分为12个中区,依托EMME4软件平台,以土地利用资料和道路网为基础,对每个中区的道路容量、建筑量和汽车保有量的现状及发展趋势进行统计分析,得出这3个因素同拥堵指数的内在关系。分别进行单一因素及不同组合因素下不同程度的增量变化,得到不同条件下的拥堵指数变化率。结果表明,三者对道路拥堵的敏感性强弱顺序依次为:汽车增量、道路容量增量、建筑增量。采取单一措施,路网拥堵情况改善不明显,采取组合措施后的路网拥堵改善效果优于采取单一措施。因此,通过合理控制汽车和建筑规模增长,同时改善道路交通设施,增加道路容量,可以有效改善道路拥堵状况。

In order to study the sensitivity of road network capacity, building volume and car ownership to traffic congestion, the congestion index was put forward as the evaluation index of sensitivity. The east?ern district in Qingdao was divided into twelve medium-sized traffic zones according to the administra?tive division and the layout of urban functions. Relied on EMME4 software platform, based on the data of land use and road network, the present situation and development trend of road network capacity, build?ing volume and car ownership in each medium-sized traffic zone were subjected to statistical analysis and their inherent relations with congestion index were concluded. The corresponding change rate of con?gestion index under different conditions became clear after the incremental changes of single factor as well as different combination of factors were analyzed respectively. The study indicates that the sensitivi?ty to congestion increase gradually in the sequence of building volume increment, road network capacity increment, car ownership increment. Furthermore, the improvement effect of network congestion under combination of measures is better than single measure. The road traffic conditions will be effectively im?proved by controlling car and building volume increment, improving transport infrastructure and increas?ing road capacity.