基于Shapley值法的港口冷链物流投资分析方法

Investment Analysis Method of Port′s Cold Chain Logistics Based on Shapley Value

从客户的角度出发,旨在建立一套与投资额度、客户满意程度相关联的港口冷链物流投资分析方法,为决策者在财务分析之外提供另一个分析视角。将港口冷链物流划分为冷藏存储、冷藏加工、冷藏运输、客户服务4个环节。首先利用层次分析法确定各个环节在整条供应链的权重,然后引入效用理论确定各个环节投资产生的效用,通过Shapley值法实现了各个环节在整条供应链权重和各个环节投资效用的有机结合,使得发展瓶颈随投资的变动而改变,从而更加符合实际情况。通过实例分析,此方法能够充分考虑投资效用的影响,也能够减少专家打分等定性方法产生的主观偏差。

From the perspective of customers, an investment analysis method of port′s cold chain logis?tics was proposed, which was related with the amount of investment and customer satisfaction, in order to provide another analysis perspective for decision maker besides the financial analysis. The port′s cold chain logistics was divided into four links:storage, processing, transportation and customer service. First?ly, the weight of each link was determined by using analytic hierarchy process. Secondly, the investment utility of each link was determined through the introduction of the utility theory. Then, the organic combi?nation of the weight and investment utility of each link was implemented by the Shapley value method. In this case, it was more in line with the actual that the bottleneck of the development did evolve when investment changed. Through the analysis of examples, the influence of investment utility was fully con?sidered, and the subjective bias such as the expert scoring methods was avoided.