基于灰色系统理论的道路交通事故预测

A Study on Prediction of Road Trafic Accident Based on Gray System Theory

道路交通安全系统是一个与人、车、路、环境相关联的动态复杂的系统,因此,道路交通事故具有随机性和信息的不确定性。灰色系统理论通过对"部分"己知信息的挖掘,建立灰色模型,提取有价值的信息,实现对系统的未来发展状态作出科学的定量预测。可以选用灰色系统理论下的GM(1,1)模型对道路交通事故四项指标进行预测,并通过精度检测,检验其合理性。通过预测,可以分析现有道路交通条件下未来交通事故的发展趋势,以便及早采取措施进行预防,减少事故发生次数及损失程度。

The road safety system is the dynamic complexity which integrated the human, automobiles, road and environment. Therefore, the traffic accidents owns the randomness and the uncertainty of information. Gray System Theory establish the grey model and extract the valuable information through digging out the known information of the 'Part', which realize the scientific quantitative forecasting aiming to the future development of the system. We can choose GM(1,1) model based on the grey system to forecast the four indicators of traffic accidents, furthermore, to checkout the rationality through detecting the precision. By forecasting, we can analyze the development tendency of the future traffic accidents based on traffic conditions, which is for taking the measures previously to prevent from adding the times of accidents and the degree of the loses.