乘数法在男男性行为人群规模估计中的应用

The Application of Multiplier Method in Estimating the Population Size of Men who Have Sex with Men

目的估计上海市男男性行为者(MSM)人群规模。方法采用乘数法对MSM人群进行人群规模的基数估计。通过手机交友软件调查,获取乘数法的重要参数"r"和"m"。用滚雪球的方法招募现场调查对象,并对调查对象开展面对面问卷调查。结果乘数法估计出上海市MSM人群规模的基数为95 618人。结论本市基于手机交友软件和现场调查的乘数法的MSM人群规模估计方法,能满足方法的应用条件,可信度较高。

Objective To estimate the population size of men who have sex with men(MSM) in Shanghai.Methods Using multiplier method to estimate the base of crowd size of target population.The important parameters 'r' and 'm' had been obtained through internet survey.The investigation objects in the field had been recruited by the method of snowball and the face-to-face questionnaire survey had been carried out.Results The estimated base of MSM population size was 95 618 by the multiplier method.Conclusion The methods of multiplier meet the basic conditions of their application respectively,so the investigation results were reliable.