学校因病缺课缺勤系统对聚集性水痘疫情的预警分析

The Early-detection Methods of Varicella Outbreaks Through Shanghai Internet-based School Illness Absenteeism Report System

目的探寻通过学校因病缺课缺勤系统对学校聚集性水痘疫情的有效预警方法。方法分析水痘公共卫生突发事件与学生因病缺课率的趋势关系,以及与水痘病例数移动百分位数预警的灵敏度。结果学生因病缺课率高峰为每年的11—12月,次高峰为3—4月,而水痘的聚集性疫情则在高峰流行初期即有陆续发生。结论 P95的灵敏度和预警平均提前天数都较区(县)应急响应标准有所提高,但该方法受学校卫生老师采集学生缺课信息情况和上报情况的限制,其作用仍有待商榷。

Objective To explore effective early-detection methods of varicella outbreaks through Shanghai Internet-based School Illness Absenteeism Report System. Methods Both the trends of varicella outbreaks and the rate of students' absenteeism were compared. The sensitivity of early warning percentile for varicella outbreaks was calculated. Results The peak of students' absenteeism rate appeared in November and December, and the second peak appeared in March and April. Varicella outbreaks happened when students' absenteeism rate was rising. Conclusion The sensitivity and the average number of days in advance for warning of P95 are higher than those of emergency response standards of districts level. However, this method is limited by the information collection and data report quality of the health teachers, and its application is still open to question.