职业教育的规模、结构与质量对经济发展影响的实证分析

The Effect of Vocational Education Scale,Composition and Quality on Economic Growth

职业教育与经济发展关系密切。本文利用2002—2013年省级面板数据,采用GMM估计方法,分析我国职业教育的绝对规模及其占教育总体的相对规模对经济发展的影响,并进一步估计职业教育质量对经济发展的影响。研究发现,从全国范围看,扩大职业教育规模对经济发展具有显著正向贡献;而职业教育占教育总体的结构比例具有倒U型影响,需保持不同类型教育的均衡发展;职业教育质量对经济发展具有显著正向促进作用。分地区看,东部、中部与西部地区的职业教育规模均与经济发展正相关,在结构上东部地区职业教育呈倒U型影响,其占教育整体的比重已达到经济发展的要求,而中西部地区职业教育呈U型影响,可适度提高职业教育所占比重;东、中部地区的职业教育质量对经济发展具有显著的促进作用,而西部地区受产业结构及就业结构影响,职业教育质量的影响为负。

There exists a close relationship between vocational education and economic growth.The article examines the influence the vocational education scale,composition and vocational education quality exerting on economic growth based on growth regression model and dynamic panel data from 2012 to 2013.Statistics Results show that at the national level,vocational education scale has a positive promotion effect on economic growth.Meanwhile,there is an inverse U-shape effect of vocational education composition,and vocational education quality has a significant effect on economic growth.At the regional level,in all regions,vocational education scale has positive effect on economic growth.Only in east region,vocational education composition matches the demand of economic development.As for vocational education quality,significant positive effects are found both in eastern and central areas,however there is negative effect in west regions because vocational education there is still in phase of scale expansion.