来源国人均收入对来华留学生规模的双向作用

The Two-way Effects of Home Countries Income Per Capita on the Flow of International Students to China

来源国人均收入对留学生规模的影响在文献中一直缺乏明确的结论。本文提出了一个基于"收入效应"和"替代效应"的理论模型,并利用重力方程以及1999—2013年间188个国家的来华留学生面板数据,分析了来源国人均收入对来华留学生规模的影响。研究发现:首先,学历项目中"替代效应"占据了主导地位,因此使用随机效应模型进行估计,人均收入的作用是负的,而非学历项目中只有"收入效应",因此人均收入的作用是正的;其次,奖学金项目的结果与学历项目大体一致,自费项目的结果与非学历项目大体一致;最后,如果我们使用固定效应模型估计学历项目和奖学金项目,人均收入的影响将会出现"逆转"。

Limited researches on the flow of international students have explore the impact of income per capital of their home countries.To address the research question,this paper presents an empirical study from the Chinese context.Developing a theoretical framework upon income effect and substitution effect,it applies the gravity model to examine panel data of international students from 188 countries during 1999—2013in China.The study has three findings.First,the substitution effect dominates degree programs,meaning that home countriesincome per capita negatively impacts their total number of international students in random-effect models,while there is only an income effect in nondegree programs,showing a positive impact.Secondly,such an impact on fellowship programs is similar to that on degree programs,while a similar relationship exists between self-sponsored and non-degree programs.Last but not least,if we use fixed-effect models to discuss degree and fellowship programs,the impact of income per capita would be reversed.