2000—2014年我国中小学毛入学率的估算

Estimating the 2000—2014 Gross Enrollment Rates of Primary and Secondary Education in China

本文根据人口出生、普查及死亡率数据,估计了2000年至2014年中小学学龄人口,进而估算出了相应年份小学、初中和高中阶段的毛入学率。将估算的毛入学率与官方公布的毛入学率比较后发现,官方公布的小学、初中和高中阶段的毛入学率都存在较为严重的高估。由于我们估算毛入学率的在校学生数来源于官方统计,可以推断,官方毛入学率的高估主要来自学龄人口的低估。2014年,我们估计的相对可靠的小学、初中和高中阶段毛入学率分别是99.8%、87.9%和69.7%,表明当年还有约12%的初中学龄人口和约30%的高中学龄人口辍学或没有入学,义务教育还没有完全普及,达到普及高中的目标也还任重道远。

This paper uses data of birth、mortality and census to estimate school-age population and the gross enrollment rates of primary,junior and senior secondary education from 2000 to 2014,to compare the estimated and official gross enrollment rates,and finds that the official gross enrollment ratios was much overestimated.Because the data of students are all from the government,we conclude that the overestimated gross enrollment rates of government stem from underestimated school-age population.Our estimated gross enrollment rates of primary,junior and senior secondary education were 99.8%,87.9% and 69.7% respectively in 2014,about 12% junior secondary school-age and 30% senior secondary school-age population were out of school.The goal of all children obtaining nineyear compulsory education has not been attained,and achieving auniversal senior secondary education has a long way to go.